by Larry Powell - In its latest flood bulletin, the Government of Manitoba has announced it has closed a key access road between Winnipeg and North Dakota, PTH 75, (l.) "as a result of rising floodwater."    
                           
The flooding is already covering a larger area of the province  than ever before. And flood levels in the Red River Valley are expected  to top leves in 2009, the 2nd worst flood in the province in 150 yrs.    
There have been hundreds of rural road  closures, states of emergency and evacuations of both residences and  personal care homes.         
                
Two deaths have been attributed to the flooding.    
                                    
 Ice jams on the Assiniboine River west of Winnipeg yesterday caused the water to  rise almost 2 meters (6ft). The jams have now moved out, sending water downstream. And that  is expected to raise water levels of 30 cm (1 ft) going into Winnipeg. 
The Town of Melita (in the southwest of the province) has declared a state of local emergency.  Work is ongoing on the Melita dike to protect the community. 
The Assiniboine Valley at St. Lazare  
A section of the ring dike at St-Lazare will be raised by approximately 30cm as a precautionary measure in preparation for high flows from the Qu'Appelle River expected later this week.     
 This bridge, (r.) near the confluence of the Qu'Appelle and Assiniboine  Rivers at St. Lazare, had very little "freeboard" beneath it, when I  visited there yesterday (Sunday) and the crests haven't even arrived yet!
A second peak is expected over the weekend along the Qu'Appelle River. Part of PTH 41 is expected to close because of high waters.
Due to high flows on the Assiniboine, the Portage Diversion has been operated at or near maximum  capacity for the last three days.  
 
This is the normally docile Boggy Creek, now swollen and rushing toward Lake of the Prairies, on the Assiniboine River near Roblin. (All photos & video by l.p.)
PUBLISHER'S COMMENT: Is it global warming?
I  put that question to the chief climatologist at Environment Canada,  Dave Phillips. I had sent him a news account out of the States. In it,  climate scientists suggested a link between the extreme blizzards which  struck the eastern seaboard in the previous two winters,  ("Snowmageddons") and climate change. As they explained, that's because a  warmer atmosphere can hold a lot more precipitation - hence, more  intense rainfalls/snowfalls. So I asked Mr. Phillips whether this might be the case in  this country, as well. Here is his response, in an email to me on March  14th. l.p.
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 Hello Larry:
  
Thank  you for your question and reference  to the newspaper article. (...That  article...) focused on weather in the United  States but the circulation  pattern described in the piece is also  influencing the weather here in  Canada.  For example what the writer  says about the Red River in North  Dakota applies equally so in Manitoba  and most Canadians in Atlantic  Canada will say this winter has been  especially difficult with its  parade of storms.  I think that climate is  having the same effect on  our extremes as in the United States.  What  is especially becoming  evident in recent years is the increased  variability of the weather and  that likely is associated with altered  climate.  More so there seems  to be an increase in the frequency of  heavy rainfalls.  We are seeing  that in Canada.  More of our flooding  events come from intense  rainfalls than snow and and ice melting events  which were the big flood  producers of the past.  Just last month a  seminal ariticle appeared in  Nature linking rainfall intensity with  anthropogenic climate change.   Again, I think if you look for them there  are changes in the frequency,  intensity and duration of extreme weather  events in Canada just as  there are in the United States.
Thanks for your interest Larry.
  
David Phillips