In pictures: South America's 'lithium fields' reveal the dark side of our electric future

euronews.green

A lithium leach-field in South America.

Demand for lithium-ion batteries is unprecedented - but is 

mining the chemical harmful to the environment? Story here.

El Niño is back. Here's what it means for Canada

CBC NEWS

Milder winter likely ahead, and more severe weather too, expert says. 

The final warning on climate change.(IPCC Video)

 

Arctic rainfall predicted to increase faster than expected

Kayaking in the Canadian Arctic. Photo credit -  Kerry Raymond

Nature Communications

The amount of rainfall in the Arctic may increase at a faster rate than previously thought, according to a modelling study published in Nature Communications. The research suggests that total rainfall will supersede snowfall in the Arctic decades earlier than previously thought, and could have various climatic, ecosystem and socio-economic impacts.

The Arctic is known to be warming faster than most other parts of the world, leading to substantial environmental changes in this region. Research suggests that there will be more rainfall than snowfall in the Arctic at some stage of the 21st century, but it is not yet clear when this shift will occur.

Michelle McCrystall and colleagues used the latest projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to assess the changes in the Arctic water cycle by the year 2100. The authors found that precipitation, such as rainfall and snowfall, is projected to increase in all seasons. Rainfall is projected to become the dominant form of precipitation one to two decades earlier than previous models suggested, depending on the season and region, linked to increased warming and a faster decline of sea ice. For example, previous models projected the central Arctic to transition to a rainfall-dominated region in 2090, but it is now predicted to transition in 2060/2070. The authors suggest that a transition to a rainfall-dominated Arctic could occur at lower temperature thresholds than previous models projected, even at 1.5°C warming in some regions, such as Greenland.

The authors argue that more stringent climate mitigation policies are required, as a rainfall-dominant Arctic would have impacts on ice sheet melting, rivers and wild animal populations, and have important social-ecological, cultural and economic implications.

Climate accountability legislation a historic moment for Canada

PEMBINA

INSTITUTE

A power pylon wrecked by severe weather. A Manitoba Hydro photo.

 

Pembina Institute reacts to the passage of Bill C-12, key to delivering on climate targets. Story here.

World May Already Have Hit Arctic 'Tipping Point'; Scientist.

Common Dreams

In summer, some polar bears do not make the transition from their winter residence on the Svalbard islands to the dense drift and pack ice of the high arctic, where they would find a plethora of prey. This is due to global climate change which causes the ice around the islands to melt much earlier than previously. The bears need to adapt from their proper food to a diet of detritus, small animals, bird eggs and carcasses of marine animals. Very often they suffer starvation and are doomed to die. The number of these starving animals is sadly increasing. A Wickimedia Commons photo.

'Urgent' action is needed, atmospheric scientist Markus Rex said. 

Story here.

After Big Oil's very bad week, the message for Alberta is clear.

Policy Options 

Oil pipe sits on a railway siding in SW Manitoba. A PinP photo.

If Alberta’s policy-makers don’t plan for a managed fossil fuel decline, financial and other institutions will make the decision for them.  Story here.

Serious declines in oxygen levels are recorded in the world's temperate lakes.

Nature

Clear Lake, Manitoba, CA. A PinP photo.

Widespread, long-term declines in temperate lake oxygen levels have been reported in Nature this week. This trend, calculated for nearly 400 lakes within an 80-year period, may be linked to warming temperatures and decreasing water clarity. The declines could threaten essential lake ecosystems.

The concentration of dissolved oxygen in aquatic systems can affect the balance of nutrients, biodiversity, the quality of drinking water and greenhouse gas emissions. While oxygen loss in oceans has been documented, the changes in dissolved oxygen concentrations in lakes are less well understood, in part owing to a lack of long-term and large-scale studies.

Kevin Rose and authors measured temperature and dissolved oxygen levels for almost 400 lakes (mostly in Europe and the United States) between 1941 and 2017. Declines in dissolved oxygen are up to nine times greater than those observed in the oceans. 

Increased water temperatures are associated with reduced oxygen concentration in surface waters. And lower oxygen levels in deeper waters are linked to the formation of distinct thermal layers at different depths, along with reduced water clarity.  

There were some exceptions to these trends; for example, a large subset of 87 lakes exhibited increases in both water temperature and dissolved oxygen concentration. However, this anomaly could be attributed to algal blooms, which may increase concentrations at the surface, but reduce oxygen solubility lower down.

Human activity and warming temperatures are expected to continue to drive future losses in lake dissolved oxygen. 

As the authors conclude, ongoing, rigorous efforts will be needed to counter these effects.

The Fate of the Canadian Rockies May Rest on This Decision

The Tyee

                                Bighorn country, eastern slopes, AB. Photo by Aerin Jacob

Approving the Grassy Mountain Coal Project will surely spell nothing less than the industrialization of Alberta’s sensitive eastern slopes. Story here.

Sea level rise is rapid and unstoppable unless Paris Agreement targets met

Nature

Aggressive efforts to limit global warming will sharply reduce future sea-level rise, suggests a paper published in Nature. 

Icebergs in Sermilik Fjord, SE Greenland Credit: Donald Slater

A second paper, also published in Nature, indicates that warming of 3 °C could cause sea level to increase by 0.5 cm every year by 2100 as a result of melting Antarctic land ice. The findings provide further insight into the impact of melting land ice on global sea-level rises.

This animation shows the rate at which the ice thickness is changing in meters per year (more red/yellow means faster thinning and thus faster ice loss) as the Antarctic Ice Sheet responds to changes in the atmosphere and ocean due to one potential climate scenario. This simulation, using the BISICLES ice sheet model, represents one of hundreds of such simulations used for this work to characterize ice sheet response to changes in the climate. Credit: Daniel Martin and Courtney Shafer.

Since 1993, land ice has contributed to around half of all global sea-level rise and this contribution is expected to increase as the world warms. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest land ice reservoir and its ice loss is accelerating. Complex ice sheet models can be used to project the contribution of land ice to sea-level rise, but they require massive computational power and cannot explore all possible outcomes, owing to uncertainties in the projections.

Tamsin Edwards and colleagues use a statistical and computationally efficient approach to emulate the behaviour of more-complex models to project glacier and ice sheet contributions to sea-level rise under a range of scenarios. They find that if the ambitious Paris Agreement target of limiting warming to 1.5 °C was met, the contribution of land ice to sea-level rise could be halved by 2100—from the median projected sea-level rise of 25 cm under current climate projections, to 13 cm. The authors also suggest that melting from the Greenland Ice Sheet would fall by around 70% and that the contribution of melting glaciers to sea-level rise would also halve. The authors indicate that there is no clear difference for Antarctica under different emissions scenarios, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of snowfall accumulation and ice loss. However, if the most extreme ice sheet behaviour is assumed, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, which would increase median sea-level rise to 42 cm under current pledges.

In a separate modelling study, Robert DeConto and colleagues find that limiting warming to the Paris Agreement’s alternative target of 2 °C maintains roughly constant Antarctic ice loss at current rates. However, in a scenario with warming of 3 °C—the warming trajectory consistent with current fossil fuel emissions—the authors predict that the rate of ice loss will increase substantially from 2060, triggering sea-level increases of 0.5 cm per year by 2100. Once a threshold of rapid sea-level rise is reached, modelling of optimistic, yet theoretical, approaches to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere shows a reduction, but not cessation, of further sea-level rise over the coming centuries.

The two papers highlight that aggressive efforts to limit global warming will sharply reduce future sea-level rise. For Antarctica, Tamsin Edwards and colleagues find that the complexity of competing processes on the ice sheet make it difficult to make concrete predictions about its future, and Robert DeConto and colleagues show that it is keenly sensitive to warming of 3 °C and greater. Thus, for the largest body of ice on the planet, important uncertainties remain.

Evidence of Antarctic glacier's tipping point confirmed

Science Daily

The Pine Island ice shelf - Antarctica. Photo credit - NASA ice.

Researchers have confirmed for the first time that Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica could cross tipping points, leading to a rapid and irreversible retreat which would have significant consequences for global sea level. Story here.

Climate change means even parts of Canada will need to prepare for stronger hurricanes, report suggests

CBC News

Researchers say governments need to begin adapting now to the new reality. Story here.

Nothing quite like blubber: Polar bears have few options as global heating makes seal-hunting more difficult.

Journal of Experimental Biology  

"Polar bear with seal kill, Baffin Island" by vtluvbug79

As Arctic sea ice disappears, polar bears will lose access to their preferred prey – highly caloric seals. The authors say that, on land, a polar bear would need to eat about 1.5 caribou, 37 Arctic char, 74 snow geese, 216 snow goose eggs, or 3 million crowberries to get the digestible energy they now get from the blubber of one adult ringed seal. Read the full study here.

READ another version of this story: Here.

Can polar bears and narwhals cling on as the ice shrinks?

U.N. blueprint on climate emergencies reminds us of man's legacy of deadly pollution and destruction of wildlife.

EcoWatch

Ducks swim through an "algal soup" - a stream in Manitoba Canada probably 

over-fertilized by livestock and human waste. A PinP photo.

The head of the world body sounds the alarm on what he calls humanity's "senseless and suicidal war on nature." Details here.

Climate change will alter the position of the Earth's tropical rain belt. Researchers.

PHYS ORG

Pixabay Public Domain

Future climate change will cause a regionally uneven shifting of the tropical rain belt—a narrow band of heavy precipitation near the equator. This development may threaten food security for billions of people. 

Story here.

Is lightning striking the Arctic more than ever before?

Nature

A PublicDomainPictures.com photo

Team detects a huge increase and says it could be due to climate change, but others can’t confirm the findings. Story here.

Weather disasters in 2020 boosted by climate change: report

PHYS ORG

US Firefighter Clay Stephen helps fight Australian bushfires in Tambo Complex near Victoria.
Photo by BLM Idaho.

The ten costliest weather disasters worldwide this year saw insured damages worth $150 billion, topping the figure for 2019 and reflecting a long-term impact of global warming, according to a report today. Story here.

The Big Banks’ Green Bafflegab

The Tyee

Profit, profit, profit.

Look behind their pro-climate ads and do what they do. Follow the money. Story here.

RELATED:

How ethical are ethical funds?

As giant ice shelves collapse amid global warming in the Arctic, experts call for more protection for the "Last Ice Area" (LIA). The vast communities of plants and animals living there could be lost, they warn, before we even get to understand them!

    by Larry Powell 

                                The vast Milne Ice Shelf broke up this summer. Animals found 

living within its ice cavity (red box), are shown on the right. 
Photo credits: Left: Joseph Mascaro, Planet Labs Inc. 
Right: Water and Ice Laboratory, Carleton University.

Using tools which included video taken by a robot submarine, a Canadian research team recently discovered an amazing array of plants and animals, living in the heart of Milne, the very ice shelf which broke apart just this summer north of Ellesmere Island (above), losing almost half of its mass.

Dr. Derek Mueller, Professor of Geography and Environment Science at Ottawa's Carleton University, is a team member who's worked in the area for decades. In an email to PinP, he can barely disguise his excitement over what they found.

"There are really neat microbial mats (communities of micro-organisms including cyanobacteria, green algae, diatoms, heterotrophic bacteria, and viruses) that live on the surface of the ice shelves. Similar microbial mats can be found in ponds on the bottom of shallow lakes... Inside the sea ice and clinging to its underside are communities of algae and lots of kinds of phytoplankton in the ocean as well." 

Small animals from marine waters under the sea ice in Tuvaijuittuq, a Marine Protected Area in the region. Photo credit: P. Coupel and P. Tremblay, Fisheries and Oceans Canada.

So what might the world lose if these organisms disappear with the ice?

"This Last Ice Area will hopefully serve as a refuge for ice-dependent species," Dr. Mueller explains, "both on land and in the marine environment.  We know relatively little about these organisms - how they are adapted to their surroundings, how unique they are (or perhaps how similar they are to their cousins in analogous environments in the Antarctic) and many more questions!  We won't get to ask these questions if global temperatures rise unabated and this ice melts away."

The images above come from just a tiny part of the vastness Mueller refers to, called the "Last Ice Area." And, in the face of a rapidly-warming Arctic, events involving the break-up of sea ice are all too common there.

What's left of the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf in the Last Ice Area 

after breaking apart in 2011. Credit: CEN, Laval University.

Here's how Dr. Mueller describes the LIA. 

"'The Last Ice Area' means the region in the Arctic Ocean where sea ice is most likely to survive in a warming world." 

It sprawls for up to 25 hundred kilometres along the coastlines of northern Canada and Greenland and well out to sea. It's there that the thickest sea-ice in the entire Arctic can be found. Because of its importance as a home for ice-dependant marine life and its cultural significance to the Inuit people living there, they and the World Wildlife Fund have long promoted it as worthy of conservation. (Local Inuit elders call it “Similijuaq - place of the big ice.”) 

Dr. Mueller and a colleague, Dr. Warwick Vincent of Laval University in Quebec City, are now sounding the latest alarm bells over why additional measures are needed to protect the area from increased human activity.

While Dr. Mueller remains optimistic for the future, he suggests, further steps need to be taken to expand those existing, protected areas. 

"The good news is, we do still have a window to make a difference. We can augment the existing conservation areas - the marine one, Tuvaijuittuq MPA and the terrestrial one - Quttinirpaaq National Park,  with more optimal coverage of the LIA - from Greenland in the east to the NWT in the west and perhaps there could be more protection by expanding across the coastal region reaching both inland and offshore." 

The Government of Canada announced the creation of Tuvaijuittuq Marine Protected Area a year ago, aimed at protecting a large part of the LIA.

 It's not just marine life that will be vulnerable to melting ice. So, too will terrestrial (land) animals 

such as the Peary caribou, known to migrate across the sea ice. 

Photo by Paul Gierszewski - Nunavut.

"This would recognize the important interconnection between the terrestrial and marine environments. With vulnerable ice-dependent ecosystems protected from human activity, this will guarantee the removal of multiple environmental stressors.  The big stressor is, of course, climate change. But, if we can make good on our Paris commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions globally, then the chances of the LIA remaining, increase dramatically."   

The team's findings were published recently in Science Magazine.

Ending greenhouse gas emissions may not stop global warming

Nature (With minor editing by PinP)

One of several steel power pylons toppled in an historic wind, snow and ice storm which swept through eastern Manitoba about a year ago. It left thousands without power in what was described as the worst power outage in the history of Manitoba Hydro. Damages are expected to exceed 100 million dollars.
A Manitoba Hydro photo. 

Even if human-induced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be reduced to zero, global temperatures may continue to rise for centuries afterwards, according to a simulation of the global climate published in Scientific Reports.

Jorgen Randers and Ulrich Goluke modelled the effect of different greenhouse gas emission reductions on changes in the global climate from 1850 to 2500. They also created projections of global temperature and sea level rises.

What do they show? Under conditions where manmade greenhouse gas emissions peak during the 2030s, then decline to zero by 2100, global temperatures will be 3°C warmer and sea levels 3 metres higher by 2500 than they were in 1850. Where all such emissions are reduced to zero during the year 2020 here's the scenario the models portray. 

After an initial decline, global temperatures will still be around 3°C warmer and sea levels will rise by around 2.5 metres by 2500, compared to 1850. Global temperatures could continue to increase after emissions have reduced, as continued melting of Arctic ice and carbon-containing permafrost may increase the levels of water vapour, methane and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Melting of Arctic ice and permafrost would also reduce the area of ice reflecting heat and light from the sun.

To prevent the projected temperature and sea level rises, the authors suggest that all GHG emissions would have had to be reduced to zero between 1960 and 1970. To prevent global temperature and sea level rises after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, and to limit the potentially catastrophic impacts of this on Earth’s ecosystems and human society, at least 33 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide would need to be removed from the atmosphere each year from 2020 onwards through carbon capture and storage methods.