Background
Since May 11, 2025, large wildfires have been burning across several Canadian
provinces, including British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and
Ontario.
At least 1,000 people have been forced to evacuate their homes and so far, two
fatalities have been reported in Manitoba. Emergency services are working around
the clock to contain the fires and support affected communities. At the time of writing,
approximately 9 million people across Canada and neighboring U.S. states are
under fire warnings.
The fires were fueled by strong winds and unseasonably high temperatures.
Between May 11 and 13, Winnipeg saw three consecutive days with temperatures
above 30°C, reaching a maximum of 36.4°C - well above the average May
temperature of about 19°C. (CHNV & CBC, 2025). Large regions of southern and
central Manitoba also saw temperatures above 30°C and Environment Canada
issued a heat warning to alert those vulnerable to high temperatures (Winnipeg Sun,
2025).
The fires follow an unusually dry spring across much of Western and Central
Canada, with several regions experiencing abnormally dry up to extreme drought
conditions (Canadian Drought Monitor, 2025).
Officials at both the provincial and federal levels are coordinating firefighting efforts
and disaster response measures, while environmental experts warn that the situation
may worsen and Western Canada could experience a devastating fire season which
usually runs from May to September (CNN, 2025). Intense fire-prone weather
conditions are expected over the next week.
In contrast to Canada’s record-breaking wildfire season in 2023, when fire-weather
conditions across the country reached unprecedented levels, the current 2025 fire
season presents a different kind of threat. In 2023, vast areas of forest were burned
during that season as nearly all components of the Canadian Fire Weather
Index—except for the Initial Spread Index, which ranked third since 1950—set record
highs when averaged across the country.
By contrast, while the 2025 wildfires are affecting densely forested areas in
Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario, many fires also occurred in prairies
agricultural zones.These fires are at greater risk of affecting transitional landscapes
known as the wildland-urban interface (WUI) — where human development meets
wildland vegetation. The WUI is particularly vulnerable to wildfire, as people and
property are most exposed to flammable natural fuels in these areas. This shift in
geography and fire behavior may help explain why, despite fewer fires burning in
forested regions, the 2025 season has already resulted in two fatalities—both in
Manitoba—whereas no deaths were recorded during the 2023 season.
Attribution analysis of 2023 Canada wildfires