New research finds - global heating is melting vast northern fields of permafrost so fast that - within decades - they'll likely stop cooling the planet as they have for millennia - and start doing just the opposite.

by Larry Powell

Permafrost Slide at Big Fox Lake, Ontario, Canada - 2015.
A Creative Commons photo by MIKOFOX. 

For thousands of years, so-called "permafrost peatlands" in Earth's Northern Hemisphere have been cooling the global climate. They’ve done it by trapping large amounts of carbon and nitrogen which would otherwise escape into the air as harmful greenhouse gases. 

More recently however, scientists have observed, they've been melting due to manmade global heating. As they melt, they're releasing large amounts of substances like methane - a potent greenhouse gas - into the air. 

But, without proper maps, it's been hard for scientists to get a handle on the degree to which this might be happening - until now. New ones drawn up using thousands of field observations, show; Permafrost peatlands cover a vast area of almost four million square kilometres.

And, to quote from the study, "Under future global warming scenarios, half to nearly all of peatland permafrost could be lost this century.” 

This means their age-old role, mostly as net “sinks,” keeping harmful greenhouse gases in the ground, would transform to a net source of atmospheric carbon, primarily methane.

A permafrost "slump" in Alaska. A USGS photo.

The research concludes that, “Although northern peatlands are currently a source of global cooling, permafrost thaw attributable to anthropogenic climate warming may convert peatlands into a net source of warming."

The findings were published recently in PNAS, the proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (US). 

But the impact of the nitrogen trapped in these fields cannot be underestimated, either. A separate study, also published in PNAS about three years ago, reveals, "Some 67 billion tons of it, accumulated thousands of years ago, could now become available for decomposition, leading to the release of nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere. N2O is a strong greenhouse gas, almost 300 times more powerful than CO2 for warming the climate. Although carbon dynamics in the Arctic are well studied, the fact that Arctic soils store enormous amounts of nitrogen has received little attention so far. We report that the Arctic may become a substantial source of N2O when the permafrost thaws, and that N2O emissions could occur from surfaces covering almost one-fourth of the entire Arctic."

                                                                   RELATED:

Only “Heroic Efforts” Will Spare Earth’s Mighty Boreal Forest From the Worst Ravages of Climate Change - Experts.

Sharp rise in Arctic temperatures now inevitable – UN

The Guardian

Icebergs in the high Arctic. Photo by Brocken Inaglory.

Temperatures likely to rise by 3-5C above pre-industrial levels even if Paris goals met. Story here.

RELATED: Only “Heroic Efforts” Will Spare Earth’s Mighty Boreal Forest From the Worst Ravages of Climate Change - Experts.

In worst case scenario, the trees in big parts of Canada's boreal forest 'will probably die,' says federal scientist

National

Observer

A devastating wildfire near Fort MacMurray, Alberta, Photo by DarrenRD

Large portions of Canada’s vast boreal forest could be at risk of dying off by the end of the century, as climate change will dramatically aggravate the risk of wildfires, drought and insect infestations, say government scientists in a groundbreaking new study. More here.

RELATED: Only “Heroic Efforts” Will Spare Earth’s Mighty Boreal Forest From the Worst Ravages of Climate Change - Experts.

New Studies Show - Goals of Paris Climate Accord Unlikely to be Achieved. by Larry Powell

Wildfires in Portugal. Wikimedia Commons.

Two new studies paint a sobering picture for the future of the Earth in a changing climate.

One report by a team of American scientists estimates there’s only a five percent chance that global warming can be kept below 2 degrees celsius by 2100. On the other hand, there’s a 95 percent likelihood the increase will be more like 2 to 4.9 degrees! That upper range would generally be considered by many experts as catastrophic for life on earth. And it would clearly represent a failure of the Paris Climate Accord. 

That agreement, signed last year, commits almost 200 member countries, including Canada, to limit the increase to “well under 2 degrees” above pre-industrial levels. Achieving that goal, adds the study, “will require carbon intensity to decline much faster than in the recent past.”

The second study (done jointly by a researcher with the Max Planck Institute in Germany and another from the University of Colorado), makes similar findings. Future warming, which “will likely exceed 1.5 degrees” is inevitable even in “the unreasonably optimistic scenario of an abrupt halt to fossil-fuel emissions.” That’s because of carbon dioxide emissions already in the atmosphere from our long-standing reliance on oil, gas and coal. And neither the ability of the ocean to absorb excess heat, nor the presence of aerosols in the air, will be enough to offset that net increase in temperature. Aerosols are tiny, manmade particles which tend to cool the planet. In that unlikely event of a sudden end to fossil fuel burning, those particles would quickly wash out of the atmosphere. But the C02 would remain. 

A leading US environmentalist, Bill McKibben told CNN, "These studies are part of the emerging scientific understanding that we're in even hotter water than we'd thought. We're a long ways down the path to disastrous global warming, and the policy response - especially in the US has been pathetically underwhelming."

Both studies were published this week in the prestigious journal, “Nature - Climate Change.”

-30-

RELATED: 

• Only “Heroic Efforts” Will Spare Earth’s Mighty Boreal Forest From the Worst Ravages of Climate Change - Experts.
• Will God Save Us From The Wildfires?

Massive Permafrost Thaw Documented in Canada, Portends Huge Carbon Release

  inside climate news

Study shows 52,000 square miles (135,000 square kilometers) in rapid decline, with sediment and carbon threatening the surrounding environment and potentially accelerating global warming. Details here.

Please also read; "Only Heroic Efforts Will Spare Earth's Mighty Boreal Forest From the Worst Ravages of Climate Change."

These Fires Are Huge, Hidden And Harmful. What Can We Do?

ensia

Smouldering peat gives off massive quantities of carbon dioxide and other pollutants, but the search for solutions is on. Story here.

RELATED: "One of North America' Biggest Peat Bogs Burns Near Vancouver."

"Only Heroic Efforts Will Spare Earth's Mighty Boreal Forest From the Worst Ravages of Climate Change."

As Peatlands Dry Out From Climate Change, Wildfire Risk Increases

CBCnews

'Megafires' result from severe drying, says McMaster researcher. Story here.

RELATED: "Only Heroic Efforts Will Spare Earth's Mighty Boreal Forest From the Worst Ravages of Climate Change."

Stop a Logging Assault On Quebec's Boreal Forest

Natural Resources Defense Council

Clearcut logging in BC - Photo by TJ Watt

Canadian logging companies are pushing a plan that could destroy some 3 million acres of pristine wilderness in Quebec's Broadback River valley, one of the largest and last remaining untouched stretches of the boreal forest. More here.

RELATED:  

• SAVE the BROADBACK
• "Only “Heroic Efforts” Will Spare Earth’s Mighty Boreal Forest From the Worst Ravages of Climate Change - Experts."

Warming Could Mean Major Thaw For Alaska Permafrost

Climate Central

If you’d asked permafrost researcher Vladimir Romanovsky five years ago if he thought the permafrost of the North Slope of Alaska was in danger of substantial thaw this century because of global warming, he would have said no. Not any more. More Here.

RELATED: Only “Heroic Efforts” Will Spare Earth’s Mighty Boreal Forest From the Worst Ravages of Climate Change - Experts.

Is This What Climate Change Looks Like?

The water tower in my home town is barely 

visible in smoke said to have spread all the way from Washington State, about 2,000 kilometres away! PinP photo.

RELATED: "Only “Heroic Efforts” Will Spare Earth’s Mighty Boreal Forest From the Worst Ravages of Climate Change - Experts."

The Forests of the World Are in Serious Trouble, Scientists Report

The Washington Post

PinP photo.
The planet’s forests are vital to us all. For one thing, without them, global warming would be a lot worse. Details here.

RELATED: Only “Heroic Efforts” Will Spare Earth’s Mighty Boreal Forest From the Worst Ravages of Climate Change"

The Great Wildfire Debate Lights Up Editorial Pages in Manitoba.

Photo credit - APTN. (A version of this letter was published yesterday in the Neepawa Press.)

Dear Editor, 

I'm afraid there's been a misunderstanding.

My recent letter in the Neepawa Press, "It's time to wake up and smell the smoke," has brought quite a negative response from friends and others.

The misunderstanding is over the "link" that I drew between wildfires and manmade climate change. My critics apparently think such a link was my own creation! Nothing could be further from the truth! I was merely the messenger!

The Great Wildfire Debate Lights Up Editorial Pages in Manitoba.

by Larry Powell

For simplicity, I'm putting the series of events discussed below, in chronological order.

First, I wrote the letter, immediately below, published in the Brandon Sun, Neepawa Press and Roblin Review in recent weeks.
=====

Forest fire smoke (from as far away as BC) over southern Manitoba. 

PinP photo.

Dear Editor, 

It's time to wake up and smell the smoke!

As wildfires rage around us on the Canadian prairies, forcing thousands of poor souls from their homes, we click our tongues and complain about sore eyes and reduced visibility on the roads. (Trust me, reduced visibility is the least of our worries.) 

We apparently lack the brain power to listen to and actually hear what the world's scientific community has been warning us about for over a generation. If we do nothing to curb our insatiable appetite for fossil fuels, we can expect more and worse heatwaves, droughts, wildfires and a host of other extreme weather events which are decidedly not positive, in our future. Our relentless burning of gas, oil and coal, apparently without a thought for tomorrow, produces greenhouse gases which trap the sun's heat and cause the earth's average temperature to increase. 

How much hotter will it get? 

That question does not seem to be on the minds of most humans, who are more intent on climbing aboard another climate-destroying jet plane to get to the next Olympics on the other side of the world. 

Even the common sea slug does not defile its own nest the way we do. 

Just last March, I wrote a story I called, “Only Heroic Efforts Will Spare Earth’s Mighty Boreal Forest From the Worst Ravages of Climate Change.” 

This in-depth, illustrated article documented the latest (and what should be now-familiar) warnings of world scientists. Unless we drastically reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, the mean temperature in the Boreal, a band of mostly evergreen trees which girdles the globe, will continue to soar more than most any other place on Earth. If the peat bogs and permafrost underlying both the Boreal and Arctic continue to melt, all bets are off.  A “carbon bomb” will be ignited and the “tinderbox effect” will only spread.

(The story appeared on my blog, Planet in Peril and in a couple of weeklies. Possibly afraid of losing lucrative ad contracts with Big Oil, Mass media show their cowardice and yellow-journalism by remaining largely silent on the link between this fossil-fuel consumption and the great "burning of the Boreal" now unfolding before our eyes and TV screens!)

A scant few months later, the stark warnings of the scientists quoted in the piece, are proving painfully correct, yet again. This immense eco-system is precisely where huge wildfires now rage, in Canada and Alaska. Maybe you've noticed. Smoke has now spread over entire provinces for thousands of square kilometres. 

We drove all the way from Calgary to Regina recently (almost 800 kilometres). There was smoke all the way.

We stayed in a hotel in Regina which was filling up fast with people who have had to flee their homes - "environmental refugees" from the north, now numbering some 13 thousand in total in Saskatchewan alone. That province is now in the midst of the largest evacuation in its history. These scenarios are unfolding pretty much as they have been predicted to do, if only anyone would listen! 

One would think such spectacularly ominous events would give we mortals "cause for pause" - a chance to reconsider our ways.

Apparently not.

We seem to worry more about avoiding the fires of Hell in the afterlife than we do about our own Hell, right here on Earth!

We drove to Prince Albert Park in Saskatchewan a couple of week ago. A road into the park is being "improved." We were treated to many kilometres of heavy equipment - caterpillars, front-end loaders, earth-scrapers, big trucks...all doing their part to scratch away at Mother Earth, emitting their own payloads of greenhouse gases into the air - just so "connoisseurs of the backcountry"can more easily access the wilderness with their luxury RVs - all on the comfort of a superhighway, of course. 

In the face of this vast wildfire threat, Environment Canada has been scrambling to advise those with breathing problems, especially, to stay indoors. And, surprise, surprise, such people are reporting it harder to breathe!

I used to think that we humans wouldn't sit up and take notice of the climate crisis until we were gasping for air in the streets.  

I was wrong. 

We are gasping for air in the streets! And we are still turning a blind eye.

I guess I can only dream of the day when we might, in addition to taking the heroic efforts we are now - by bombing the flames and bringing in the army - all necessary steps now that we have let things go as far as we have - that we also change our behaviour in ways that improve our planet's chances over the long-term, too.

Oh, by the way, my story also included oft-repeated concerns by the scientists themselves, that we don't really pay enough attention to their advice.

Ya think?
=====

Then, a Brandon Sun reader offered this comment, below. 

(And below that is my follow-up letter.)

=======

Sound Off

Do not blame climate change

I do not agree with Larry Powell of Neepawa that if there are forest fires in the west, they must be caused by man-made climate change. How about lightning? How about arsonists? Or is he suggesting that without climate change, it wouldn't be dry and therefore nothing would catch fire? It is indeed dry this year but heck, we might be finally coming out of a 15-year wet cycle, which was getting rather monotonous. And how are we going to sustain life in western Canada without fossil fuel for energy? “Little House on the Prairie” days are over.

Just Mother Nature doing her job.

Regarding a Letter to the Editor, “Environment up in smoke.” Really? I would think this would have been pretty normal historically. We have just gone through an above normal period of wetness, more undergrowth and foliage in the prairies and all over the world, including the desert in Arizona. When it then gets hot and dry, it’s great kindling for big fires. Not unusual, not “government-fuelled” ... just Mother Nature doing her job.

Republished from the Brandon Sun print edition July 21, 2015

======

Larry's response, submitted to The Sun, today.

====

Dear Editor,

Re; "Sound Off. Do not blame climate change." Brandon Sun. Jul. 21st, 2015.

The writer who takes me to task for suggesting a link between the wildfires still raging here and abroad, and manmade climate change, misses the point, entirely!

He makes it sound as if I invented such a link, in a lab in my back yard, or something. And his inference that the link belongs to me alone reveals, sadly, how unaware he seems to be, of the now rich body of scientific evidence which has accumulated, over decades, supporting my position. 

While I may have used language a bit "cheekier" than our typically staid climatologists, I was but the messenger, conveying what they've been suggesting for many years. Climate change is bringing with it violent weather events, like wildfires, that are more severe and frequent all the time! Anyone who cannot see this for him/herself, should be checked over right away. They may have a terminal case of wilful blindness!

One of the several leading authorities I rely on for my conclusions is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. If the letter-writer is not familiar with the IPCC, I suggest he should remove himself from this debate for being basically uninformed. The IPCC is, after all, the cradle of the accumulated knowledge of our finest minds on the subject, since perhaps the 1980s. If he is familiar with it, I suggest he cite the sources he relies on himself, in arriving so swiftly and comfortably at his own conclusion that all this wisdom is somehow worthless. If he cannot cite his own sources, I suggest he has nothing more to say to me, or anyone else on the topic!

And, oh, by the way, since he wrote his letter, new wildfires have erupted near Kelowna, BC, Glacier National Park, Montana, Alaska and Indonesia. June (the month just passed), has been declared the hottest month, worldwide, in the history of record-keeping. 2015 is poised to become the world's hottest year. Major heatwaves in Europe and North America are happening closer together. Rising sea-levels are proving more serious and, if we take no action, harder to avoid than earlier thought.

And five countries, including Canada, have clamped a ban on commercial fishing in international waters in the Arctic until they find out how rising temperatures, now the warmest on record, will affect sea-life there. 

Just "Mother Nature" acting up again? 

I think not!

Larry Powell lives in Neepawa, where he publishes the blog, www.PlanetInPeril.ca
=======
There was also this response to my first letter, submitted to the Neepawa Press.

Dear Editor,

Fire is one of the main ways by which nutrients in dead trees are returned to the soil, and made ready for the next generation of trees. This cycle of fire and regrowth in forests was established millions of years before the emergence of humans.

It is sadly true that some fires are started by humans, but to claim that the current smoke and misery caused by forest fires is a result of man-made climate change is simply wrong.

Norm Kendall of Neepawa,
====
I then submitted this response to the Neepawa Press;
====

Dear Editor, 

I'm afraid there's been a misunderstanding.

My recent letter in the Neepawa Press has brought quite a negative response from friends and others.

The misunderstanding is over the "link" that I drew between wildfires and manmade climate change. My critics apparently think such a link was my own idea! Nothing could be further from the truth! I was merely the messenger!

The letter warns that the greenhouse gases we are producing by burning oil, gas and coal, are leading to severe weather events, like droughts (which lead to wildfires), which are more frequent and serious all the time. But that is precisely what all the leading authorities on the topic, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), have been predicting for years. And, official records continue to prove, time and time again, that those predictions are correct!

So what did I mean by my reference to "manmade climate change?" Apparently some thought I was suggesting that every single wildfire was started directly by a human! Far from it. Worsening drought turns forests into kindling, ready to explode into flames, whether the source of ignition is a human with a match, a quad, or lightning.

Since my last letter, raging wildfires of epic proportions have plagued northern California and elsewhere, driving as many people from their homes as were evacuated in the disastrous fires in Saskatchewan earlier this summer. The California blazes confounded veteran firefighters, who've never seen anything like them. 

So, disagree with me, if you will.  Just let it be known that, by so doing, you are also disagreeing with the accumulated wisdom (and virtually complete consensus) of our top, renowned climatologists the world over, for many years; Not to mention the World Council of Churches, the mayors of Vancouver and New York, the Premiers of BC and Ontario,  the US Military, the World Bank, the Church of England, the insurance industry and now, the Pope.

As for the suggestion that I, myself contribute to global warming, I plead "guilty as charged." All humans leave a carbon footprint. The best I can do is to try to keep mine small. So I drive a car which gets 45 miles per gallon and travel as much as I can by train, which is less damaging than air travel.

My letter was "sharply-worded"for a reason. In my experience, the "low-key" kind get no response at all. And, as our planet continues to be dangerously degraded by our current behaviour, remaining silent (or low-key) is not an option for me.

Larry Powell

Neepawa, MB

It's Time to Wake Up and Smell the Smoke! (Letter)

by Larry Powell

It's time to wake up and smell the smoke!

Forest fire smoke (from as far away as BC) over southern Manitoba. PinP photo.

As wildfires rage around us on the Canadian prairies, forcing thousands of poor souls from their homes, we click our tongues and complain about sore eyes and reduced visibility on the roads. (Trust me, reduced visibility is the least of our worries.) 

We apparently lack the brain power to listen to and actually hear what the world's scientific community has been warning us about for over a generation. If we do nothing to curb our insatiable appetite for fossil fuels, we can expect more and worse heatwaves, droughts, wildfires and a host of other extreme weather events which are decidedly not positive, in our future. Our relentless burning of gas, oil and coal, apparently without a thought for tomorrow, produces greenhouse gases which trap the sun's heat and cause the earth's average temperature to increase. 

How much hotter will it get? 

That question does not seem to be on the minds of most humans, who are more intent on climbing aboard another climate-destroying jet plane to get to the next Olympics on the other side of the world. 

Even the common sea slug does not defile its own nest the way we do. 

Just last March, I wrote a story I called, “Only Heroic Efforts Will Spare Earth’s Mighty Boreal Forest From the Worst Ravages of Climate Change.” 

This in-depth, illustrated article documented the latest (and what should be now-familiar) warnings of world scientists. Unless we drastically reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, the mean temperature in the Boreal, a band of mostly evergreen trees which girdles the globe, will continue to soar more than most any other place on Earth. If the peat bogs and permafrost underlying both the Boreal and Arctic continue to melt, all bets are off.  A “carbon bomb” will be ignited and the “tinderbox effect” will only spread.

(The story appeared on my blog, Planet in Peril and in a couple of weeklies. Possibly afraid of losing lucrative ad contracts with Big Oil, Mass media show their cowardice and yellow-journalism by remaining largely silent on the link between this fossil-fuel consumption and the great "burning of the Boreal" now unfolding before our eyes and TV screens!)

A scant few months later, the stark warnings of the scientists quoted in the piece, are proving painfully correct, yet again. This immense eco-system is precisely where huge wildfires now rage, in Canada and Alaska. Maybe you've noticed. Smoke has now spread over entire provinces for thousands of square kilometres. 

We drove all the way from Calgary to Regina recently (almost 800 kilometres). There was smoke all the way.

We stayed in a hotel in Regina which was filling up fast with people who have had to flee their homes - "environmental refugees" from the north, now numbering some 13 thousand in total in Saskatchewan alone. That province is now in the midst of the largest evacuation in its history. These scenarios are unfolding pretty much as they have been predicted to do, if only anyone would listen! 

One would think such spectacularly ominous events would give we mortals "cause for pause" - a chance to reconsider our ways.

Apparently not.

We seem to worry more about avoiding the fires of Hell in the afterlife than we do about our own Hell (you know, the real one), right here on Earth!

We drove to Prince Albert Park in Saskatchewan a couple of week ago. A road into the park is being "improved." We were treated to many kilometres of heavy equipment - caterpillars, front-end loaders, earth-scrapers, big trucks...all doing their part to scratch away at Mother Earth, emitting their own payloads of greenhouse gases into the air - just so "connoisseurs of the backcountry"can more easily access the wilderness with their luxury RVs - all on the comfort of a superhighway, of course. 

In the face of this vast wildfire threat, Environment Canada has been scrambling to advise those with breathing problems, especially, to stay indoors. And, surprise, surprise, such people are reporting it harder to breathe!

I used to think that we humans wouldn't sit up and take notice of the climate crisis until we were gasping for air in the streets.  

I was wrong. 

We are gasping for air in the streets! And we are still turning a blind eye.

I guess I can only dream of the day when we might, in addition to taking the heroic efforts we are now - by bombing the flames and bringing in the army - all necessary steps now that we have let things go as far as we have - that we also change our behaviour in ways that improve our planet's chances over the long-term, too.

Oh, by the way, my story also included oft-repeated concerns by the scientists themselves, that we don't really pay enough attention to their advice.

Ya think?

Forest Fires Rage Near Manitoba Towns, Burning Permits Cancelled

CBC News

Fire crews battled blazes in dry, windy conditions near the towns of Cormorant and Sherridon in northwestern Manitoba, prompting the province to cancel burning permits and restrict campfires over large stretches of territory. Story here.

Relalted: Only “Heroic Efforts” Will Spare Earth’s Mighty Boreal Forest From the Worst Ravages of Climate Change - Experts.

Canada’s Forest Fires Threaten the Whooping Crane

World Resources Institute

Canada, home to two of the Whooping Crane Summer Ranges, topped the list of countries with the most forest loss. The loss is likely due to sweeping boreal forest fires in the Wood Buffalo National Park. Story here.

Related: "Only 'Heroic Efforts' Will Spare Earth’s Mighty Boreal Forest From the Worst Ravages of Climate Change - Experts."

Northern Fires Caused Almost a Quarter of Global Forest Loss, Study Shows

theguardian

Forest fires destroyed vast areas of woodland in Canada and Russia between 2011 and 2013, greatly contributing to greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change, satellite data reveals. Story here.

Related: Only 'Heroic Efforts' Will Spare Earth's Mighty Boreal Forest From the Worst Ravages of Climate Change.

Bark Beetles Are Decimating Our Forests. That Might Actually Be a Good Thing.

MotherJones

They gobble up trees and send politicians into a frenzy. But do the bugs know more about climate change than we do? Story here.

Related: Only “Heroic Efforts” Will Spare Earth’s Mighty Boreal Forest From the Worst Ravages of Climate Change - Experts.  

Only “Heroic Efforts” Will Spare Earth’s Mighty Boreal Forest From the Worst Ravages of Climate Change - Experts.

by Larry Powell 

Like a giant green scarf, the boreal forest embraces the globe. It's home to a cold but living, breathing community of plants, animals and humans. Marked by mountains, over a million lakes and other waterways, muskeg and human settlements, it sprawls over the vast expanse of the northern hemisphere. Every third tree on the planet (mostly evergreen) is found there, making it one of Earth's largest remaining ecosystems. One-half of this immense, wooded habitat is found in Russia. One third of it is here in Canada, where it occupies more than half of our entire land mass. The rest is shared by Alaska and Scandinavia.

Part of the "boreal plains" of western Canada. A PinP photo.

                        An Important Gathering - an Ominous Conclusion

Every two or three years, the International Boreal Forestry Research Association (IBFRA) meets to assess the overall health of the region.  Delegates include government and university specialists in various fields relating to forests such as fire, disease, insects and the changing climate. It’s an opportunity to pool valuable and diverse knowledge and recommend ways for policy-makers to proceed with overall forest management.

IBFRA’s most recent prognosis is sobering; the forest is “at risk.” It’s future - “highly uncertain.”

Wildfire  in the Northwest Territories - Canada, 2014. 

Photo credit - Aboriginal Peoples' Television Network.

Along with the Arctic, the boreal is already at the epicentre of climate change. Concentrations of carbon dioxide, the most common greenhouse gas, increased in the region by one-half since 1960, a magnitude that has startled many scientists. While the planet’s entire surface temperature has risen .8 degrees Celsius since the 1870s, already a significant amount, the boreal region has warmed almost 4 times as much; 3 degrees C in that same period. 

Up to 5 billions birds, like this Cape May warbler, nest in the boreal forest. In 2001, 85,000 migratory bird nests were lost to logging. (Source, Cdn. Geographic).

A dramatic example of individual warming happened in July, 2013. That’s when parts of the Siberian forest were 16 degrees C above normal for a week. 

But this pales in comparison to what might lie ahead. According to wide-ranging scenarios, the boreal could warm up another 4 to 9 degrees C above present levels before the end of the century. It all depends on the volume of greenhouse gases emitted by then. But this would not just be for a limited period like a week or so.  This would represent an average, long-term increase that could become a "new normal” our great-grandchildren will have to endure! 

A herd of bison, North America's largest land mammal 
in Riding Mountain National Park, Manitoba -
where the boreal meets aspen parkland and fescue prairie.

Summarising the IBFRA findings, Werner Kurz, Senior Researcher with the Canadian Forest Service says, simply to keep warming to the lower end of the range, human-produced greenhouse gases would need to peak in about a decade, then actually decline before 2100! In other words, more carbon would have to be removed from the atmosphere by then than we would be adding from all human sources.

“This would require heroic efforts and technological changes,” Dr. Kurz observes. “We’re not saying it’s impossible,” he adds, optimistically. “It would just require big efforts.”

Worsening wildfires could bring a transition of the forest to more broad leaf tree cover, 

even grassland. Photos by PinP.

Paying the Price “as we speak.”

Drought conditions resulting from a warming climate have already led to increases in the extent of wildfires. Despite torrential rains and flooding  elsewhere in Canada last year, several boreal regions of British Columbia and the Northwest Territories were like tinderboxes, suffering “infernos” which consumed 4.5 million hectares of woodlands, three times the national average. 

Preliminary satellite data from Russia reveal, if anything, an even more alarming trend there. In 2012, fire consumed about 40 million hectares of Russian forest.  That's  40 times as large as the area burned there in 1979!

In an e-mail, Dr. Kurz tells PinP, "In areas that are affected by increases in forest fires, and where communities exist" (whether they are First Nations villages, fishing or mining camps), "the risks from fire will increase."

But warming forests won't be all bad news, he adds. "In some areas, warming will enhance tree growth, but bring losses in other areas where fires and drought impacts increase. The net impacts of these opposing trends cannot yet be determined, but will vary across the many regions of the circumboreal forests."

 Large wild animals need sizeable tracts of wilderness to thrive. 
That wilderness is being increasingly divided by logging roads and seismic lines.

                                                        Photos by PinP.

The Carbon Bomb.  

Even the ominous term, "carbon bomb" has crept into the usually understated scientific literature. And, for a reason. The peat bogs and permafrost which underlie the boreal regions (and the Arctic), contain one-third of Earth’s terrestrial (in-the-ground) carbon stocks, twice as much as that in the atmosphere. 

And, they're melting! 

This could release up to 250 billion more tonnes of carbon into the air by 2100, a huge amount that is not even taken into account in the current scientific modelling. This would surely be a “tipping point” beyond which all bets are off. 

As Dr. Kurz puts it, “There is potential for terrestrial feed backs that are far greater than currently assumed. It is therefore critically important to understand how the global boreal forests will act, either as a net source (emitter) or net sink (absorber) of carbon in the future. The more carbon that is released from these old pools, the more these forests act as carbon sources; the greater mitigation efforts (those that reduce emissions, the root causes of climate change) will be required in all other sectors.” 

Global Warming and the Mountain Pine Beetle. 

What Will the Future Hold?

A section of the mountain boreal region in western Canada, 

possibly showing early signs of pine beetle infection.

Warmer winters have already meant higher survival rates for highly destructive mountain pine beetles. Native to British Columbia, they swept through that province some two decades ago, killing about half of the province’s commercial pine trees, notably lodgepole and ponderosa. It was the worst outbreak ever recorded anywhere. Then, the bugs spread into Alberta to the east, decimating thousands of additional hectares there. 

And, they're still on the move. It's estimated they have marched at least 400 kilometres to the north and the east in the past five years or so. The consensus is, “In the absence of control, (even) further range expansion is likely.” 

Lower impacts are expected through Saskatchewan and Manitoba. But that news is cold comfort to those provinces. It is now known that the bugs can and have spread to jack pine, a more common species in the forests here.

A Government of Manitoba website notes,  for example, that large sections of forests destroyed by the beetles in B.C., harvested and exported in salvage operations, may still be infested with live beetles. So there are fears of a similar “epidemic” here.

Increasing Human Activity Complicates the Boreal's Future,

Many parts of the boreal are experiencing ramped-up levels of industrial activity such as mining (for metals, minerals and peat moss), logging, oil sands extraction and power generation. (Even though the impact that a warming planet will have on our future ability to generate hydro-power is anyone's guess, the province of Manitoba, for example, is spending billions of dollars on new hydro transmission lines and generating stations.) 

A waterfall in the Canadian Rockies. 

What will a changing climate do to it and the aquatic life it nurtures?

David Kreutzweiser of Natural Resources Canada, refers to these activities as “environmental stresses,” which place unknown pressure on the vast water resources of the boreal and the biodiversity of the aquatic creatures they sustain. 

This surely raises the question, might this increasing activity itself be an example of how our politicians are barging ahead, without even bothering to read the kind of scientific research so readily available to them? The conference was told many of them either can't understand the research or believe it has nothing to do with the issue at hand.

It’s a poorly-kept secret that many scientists feel frustrated with this kind of political response. 

This frustration has not been helped by the actions of Stephen Harper's federal government government in recent years. It has fired many researchers while others have been forbidden to speak out about their work. So the wording of the final communique out of the IBFRA conference is, perhaps, understandable for its remarkable restraint.

“Scientists believe their results are under-utilized in policy formulation.” 

In a practise called "slashing," trees growing on land wanted for agriculture, are bulldozed and burned, eating away at the edges of the boreal in central Manitoba.

Where To From Here?

Phil Comeau of the University of Alberta's Department of Renewable Resources was a co-chair at the IBFRA conference. In an interview with PinP, Prof. Comeau puts it this way. 

"It is already too late to stop change from happening, but if we can find effective ways to seriously reduce greenhouse gas emissions now, we may be able to reduce the level of long-term impacts. As one questioner put it: 'We are driving at breakneck speed towards the edge of a cliff, but we still may have a chance to avoid going over that clifcliff."

Muuch of the information for this article was gleaned from material published online by IBFRA and The Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 

(Except where noted, all photos are by the author. )

RELATED:

• "Warming Could Mean Major Thaw For Alaska Permafrost"
• "Tar Sands Threaten World’s Largest Boreal Forest"