Where people go, there too, goes Covid-19! Surprising? Perhaps not. But, if more solid science will help to convince the doubters - here it is!

Nature

A busy London pub. Photo by Steve Parker.

Reopening places such as restaurants, fitness centres, cafes, and hotels carries the highest risk for transmitting SARS-CoV-2, according to a modelling study based on data from the United States published in Nature. Reducing occupancy in these venues may result in a large reduction in predicted infections, the model suggests. The study also highlights disparities in infection risk according to socioeconomic status.

To assess how changes in movement might alter the spread of the  virus, Jure Leskovec and colleagues use phone data (collected this spring) to map the movements of millions of people from different local neighbourhoods. They combined these data with a model of transmission. This allowed them to identify potential high-risk venues and at-risk populations. The simulations from their model accurately predict confirmed daily case counts in ten of the largest metropolitan areas (such as Chicago, New York City and San Francisco).

The level of detail of the mobility data allowed the researchers to model the number of infections occurring, by the hour, at nearly 553,000 distinct locations grouped into 20 categories — termed “points of interest” — that people tended to visit regularly. Their model predicts that a small number of these locations, such as full-service restaurants, account for a large majority of infections. For example, in the Chicago metropolitan area, 10% of the points of interest accounted for 85% of the predicted infections at points of interest. The model predicts that compared with higher-income groups, lower-income populations are more likely to become infected because they have not been able to reduce their mobility as substantially and because the places they visit tend to be smaller and more crowded, which increases the risk of infection. For example, grocery stores visited by lower-income individuals tended to have 59% more people per square foot than those visited by higher-income individuals, and their visitors stayed 17% longer on average.

By modelling who is likely to be infected at which locations, the authors were also able to estimate the effects of different reopening strategies, and they suggest that their model can inform reopening policies. For example, capping the occupancy of a venue at 20% of its maximum capacity is predicted to reduce new infections by over 80%, but would only reduce the overall number of visits by 42%.

Rivers melt Arctic ice, warming air and ocean.

 SCIENCEDaily

An Arctic river in Alaska. Photo by mypubliclands 

A new study shows that increased heat from Arctic rivers is melting sea ice in the Arctic Ocean and warming the atmosphere. Details here.

For at least a decade, three founders of HyLife Foods have contributed thousands of dollars to the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba.

by Larry Powell

Giving money to political parties, while older than Manitoba itself, has now erupted into something of a political storm in the province. And, to give context to the role of party donations, it's necessary to explain it in chronological order, going back a few months.

Colleen Munro, owner and president of Hugh Munro Construction Ltd.,
Winnipeg. (HMC) A company photo.

This summer, Opposition parties slammed the provincial government when a financial contributor to the PCs, Colleen Munro (above), got the green light to develop a controversial limestone quarry in the southeastern RM of Rosser. The Government-appointed Municipal Board, made up of at least two other PC party donors, approved the project, over-ruling opposition to the quarry, both from local residents and the duly-elected local council. (There is no appeal from Board rulings.)

As the Manitoba Liberal Leader, Dougald Lamont put it at the time, "If you want something done, all you have to do it to give lots of money to the PCs."

Now, PinP has uncovered a strikingly similar scenario - with a twist - in another part of the province. Except this time, the role that political donations may be playing has so far, flown beneath the radar. 

Over the ongoing objections of several local residents, Canada's biggest pork processor, HyLifeFoods has just won approval to build a multi-million dollar hog factory near the Village of Elgin in the southwestern RM of Grassland. After initially rejecting the proposal, the local council there reversed itself and announced, last week, it was approving it. 

The Reeve publicly claimed, the turnaround came only after winning concessions from the company. But, had the RM not reversed itself, it almost certainly would have faced a lengthy and expensive appeal before the Municipal Board. Given the precedent the Board set in Rosser, it surely seems approval would have been the final outcome, anyway.

My search of ElectionsManitoba records (see screen shots, below) reveals the following: three of four HyLife founders, Claude and Denis Vielfaure and an associate, Donald Janzen (above) of the southeastern Manitoba community of  La Broquerie, have, since 2010, contributed almost 24 thousand dollars ($23,569.75) to the PCs. 

2019

 2018

 2017

 2016

 2015

2014

2013

2012

  2011

                                              $862.00

2010

(There is no record of the fourth founder, Paul Vielfaure, having made any contributions. And it doesn't show any of them donating to any party other than the provincial PCs. My search did not go further back than 2010.) 

A Thai-based company took over controlling interest in HyLife last year. The three have now stepped down, at least from full-time duties at the company. But they remain a large part of the image it presents to the public.

For about a week, I've sent several messages to the three, inviting them to comment on my story. They have not answered at the time of this posting.

"He who pays the piper calls the tune?"

Over the years, HyLife and its forerunners (including HyTek and Springhill) - along with other players in the livestock industry - have received significant taxpayer support from governments at other levels and political stripes, in the form of grants and loans. 

In Hogs We Trust - Part 11 - the Price We Pay For A$$embly-Line Pork. 

But, it's Manitoba's current Government, led by Brian Pallister's Conservatives, which has, arguably proven to be the friendliest to the hog industry. 

Soon after coming to office in 2016, it set aside environmental regulations under the previous NDP which had been seen as roadblocks in the way of industry expansion. 

Local RM councils used to be able to reject new factory barns or expansions of existing ones. Now, it's much harder, if not impossible, to do. 

And, there's more. 

One informed source tells PinP, "A plethora of bills have been introduced into the Manitoba legislature. There are more changes to the Planning Act proposed which are designed to further erode local government authority over planning decisions."

So, despite a pandemic, hog industry expansion in this province seems set to continue apace.

Meanwhile, voices of dissent in both cases cited here, have not gone away. Here's what Steven Tufts, who farms close to the site of the future barns in Grasslands, thinks of HyLife's decision to re-submit its application after initial rejection by the local council.

"I am again writing a letter to who it may concern about the Hylife Gibsons Nursery. I am a small farmer south of Elgin with land across the road from the proposed barn. This is all fine. What really turns me off greatly is how this sneaky, devious bunch would reapply for this barn after the neighbours and RM of Grassland said no to them the first time. It is very obvious how sneaky these people are to reapply in Harvest time when other real farmers are too busy to deal with it. That is just an ignorant thing to do. I do not want people in my area who are like this. We have enough crime in our area."

Further dissenting voices can be viewed here.

RELATED:

The Government of Manitoba robs its rural citizens of their local autonomy to serve its political friends and big business. (Opinion)

Manitoba’s organic sector seeing slow but steady increase: report

OrganicBIZ

An organic market garden in Manitoba.
A PinP photo.

Manitoba was the only Prairie province to see an increase in organic crop acres in 2019. Story here.

Pallister's petrifying parks privatization plan.(Video)

The Manitoba Wilderness Committee

A vicious circle. Global heating leads to melting ice leads to more heating.....

                                            Nature Communications

A polar bear navigates a dwindling ice pack. Photo by Andreas Weith

The melting of ice in polar and mountain regions around the world could lead to an additional 0.43 °C increase in global warming in the long term, according to a study published online in Nature Communications.

The loss of ice cover is known to influence air temperatures, for example through albedo changes (the amount of sunlight reflected from the Earth’s surface). Although the mechanisms that are responsible for increased warming are well understood, it isn't clear how large the contributions of different ice sheets and feedback mechanisms to global temperature changes are.

Nico Wunderling and colleagues use a simplified Earth system model in combination with different CO2 concentration levels to provide such an estimate. They find an additional median warming of 0.43°C in response to the loss of all ice sheets at CO2 concentrations similar to today's (400 parts per million). The contributions from different ice masses range from 0.05°C for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to 0.19°C due to the loss of Arctic summer sea ice. 

However, these experiments do not consider changes in CO2 concentrations over time or feedback mechanisms that could have an impact on shorter time-scales. Furthermore, the authors note that this warming does not emerge over years or decades, but rather on a time-scale of centuries to millennia (although they highlight that the Arctic might become ice-free during the summer within the 21st century). Therefore, these results should be interpreted as idealized estimates of contributions of different ice sources and feedback mechanisms.

Residues of herbicides, fungicides and insecticides (known as "Plant Protection Products," or PPPs), being found in pollen and nectar, are "a significant stressor" for bees and other pollinators.

Environmental Research